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Hope Skilling - McEnearney Associates, Inc.
Hope Skilling
Current MarketWatch

Washington DC MarketWatch - May/June 2011

MarketWatch, authored by David Howell, managing broker of our McLean office, is published on a bi-monthly basis by McEnearney Associates, Inc. It provides useful and insightful summaries of current housing market trends. MarketWatch statistics include housing sales from all companies serving our Virginia - Washington DC - Maryland Metropolitan area.

The Pundits Say Now Is The Time To Buy A House. Really?!?
Home prices are lower. Surprisingly, mortgage interest rates remain near historic lows. The economy - at least in this region - seems to be improving. So this has to be a great to buy, right?

We've said it before, and we'll say it again: Buying a house is not for everyone, and it only makes sense to buy if it is the right time for you. However, if you have thought about buying any time in the next year, then this really is a good time to buy. Here's why:
  • In Washington, DC, it costs 23% less to buy a median priced-home today than it did five years ago. The median price is down 6%, and buying power is up 22% because of lower mortgage rates. (See charts below for more specific information.)
  • Most economists believe that mortgage rates will rise during the next twelve months, so even if home prices do drop a bit more, the cost of buying may rise anyway. This is a great time to lock in low rates.
  • There are still great loan programs out there for first-time buyers, for the military, for doctors and more.
  • There are big changes on the horizon for the mortgage loan business. Consider these possibilities:
    • The conforming limit is due to drop in the fall, and that will impact this area more than most. Loan amounts that are conforming now may be considered "jumbo" loans by September. Because mortgage interest rates tend to be higher for jumbo loans, an increase of just a half percent mortgage interest rate could mean an increase in a monthly payment of more than $150.
    • Whatever changes are implemented, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to look - and function - differently than they do now.
    • It is also possible that changes to underwriting standards will increase the amount of down payment required to obtain a loan, and decrease the percentage of income that can be used to qualify for a loan.
Reform for the mortgage industry is essential, and the days of anyone and everyone being able to get a loan - whether they could afford it or not - are fortunately behind us. But taken as a whole, the proposals that are being considered could reduce the number of mortgage options available and could drive interest rates higher.

By suggesting that the stars have aligned to make this a great time to make a move, we know we could be accused of REALTOR®-speak. After all, it's our job to get people to buy a home, isn't it? Not really. Our job is to provide advice based on our knowledge and experience and help our clients make sound housing decisions - even if the best decision is not to buy or not to sell. But we'd be remiss if we didn't let our clients know about market conditions that look this promising. If your personal circumstances - your job, income, and likelihood of remaining in the area for several years - are solid and you're serious about changing your current housing, let's talk.
Mortgage Interest Rates
Mortgage Interest Rates
  • 30-year fixed interest rates at the end of April averaged 4.78%, compared to 5.06% at the end of April 2010.
  • One-year ARMs were 3.15% at the end of April 2011 vs. 4.25% at the end of April 2010.
  • While rates are lower than they were this time last year, they are 55 basis points higher than they were in October.
Buying Power
Buying Power
  • A $1,000 principal and interest payment supported a loan of $191,038 at the end of April, which is $6,022 more than this time last year.
  • In April 2006, it would have taken a monthly PI payment of $2,709 to purchase a median priced home. With today's lower prices, combined with lower rates, it takes a payment of $2,099.



Number Of New Listings, Ratified Contracts, And Active Listings
Number Of New Listings, Ratified Contracts, And Active Listings
  • There were 1,116 new listings that came on the market in April 2011, a 20.4% decrease from the 1,402 in April 2010.
  • October 2008 saw the highest level of available inventory in the past six years.